Bijan Fallah — Noteshttps://bijan-fallah.com/feed.xml2026-09-01T00:00:00ZBijan Fallahhttps://bijan-fallah.com/"Just re-tune the trigger" — and the 19% that won't go awayhttps://bijan-fallah.com/notes/recalibration-floor.html2026-09-01T00:00:00Z“Just re-calibrate the trigger” is the standard answer to basis risk. On ten years of European wind data, re-tuning does help, up to a point: the fairest available setting still misses roughly 6.7% of whole droughts and leaves about 19% of drought-hours unpaid.The gap nobody prices: what "basis risk" really means for a wind farmhttps://bijan-fallah.com/notes/basis-risk-wind-farm.html2026-08-11T00:00:00ZParametric covers pay on a weather number, not on your loss — and the gap between the two has a name almost nobody measures. What basis risk is, why a 0.98 correlation doesn't protect you, and why the quiet failure mode costs more than the dramatic one.The sea I swam in: four independent datasets on a Mediterranean warming twice as fast as the oceanhttps://bijan-fallah.com/notes/mediterranean-warming.html2026-08-07T00:00:00ZIn July 2026 the Mediterranean averaged 27.0 °C at the surface — 2.4 °C above the 1982–2011 norm, the warmest July in the 45-year satellite record. Four datasets built by rival methods in three countries agree on why: the basin is warming at ~0.36 °C per decade, twice the global-ocean rate.Malawi 2016, re-examined: what a famous insurance failure still teaches every weather triggerhttps://bijan-fallah.com/notes/malawi-2016-reexamined.html2026-08-04T00:00:00ZThe same drought was worth almost nothing, then worth US$8m — and nothing about the weather changed. An independent re-analysis on public data, asking which half of a parametric payout was actually doing the work.